Team path
NMSNew Mexico State
Conference record 2-1, overall 3-4. Currently 4 of 10 in the Conference USA order (conference win percentage).
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Chances
Model output from 10,000 simulated seasons. Not a guarantee.
Remaining games
Team, conference and league logos courtesy of ESPN
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| Date (MT) | Game | Win probabilitymodel | Model lineKickTip analysis | Market consensusThe Odds API, as of Oct 24, 10:33 AM MT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28, 6:00 PM MT | Jacksonville StateHome, conference game | Locked | Locked | Locked |
| Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM MT | LibertyHome, conference game | Locked | Locked | Locked |
| Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM MT | Missouri StateAway, conference game | Locked | Locked | Locked |
| Sat Nov 21, 1:00 PM MT | DelawareHome, conference game | Locked | Locked | Locked |
| Sat Nov 28, 12:00 PM MT | Middle TennesseeAway, conference game | Locked | Locked | Locked |
JS
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MTHow to read the lines. Each line names the favored team and the number of points, shown with a minus sign: the team named is the favorite. The model line is KickTip analysis, not a market line, and the market consensus is shown only where at least two books list a line. The two can differ a lot: right now the biggest gap between a model line and its market line is 20.5 points, which usually means our rating and the market disagree about a team. Information only.
Games against FCS opponents are counted in the simulation but have no line.
Results
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| Date (MT) | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 21 | Sam HoustonAway | Final · W 30-24 |
| Wed Oct 7 | Florida InternationalAway | Final · L 3-22 |
| Thu Oct 1 | Western KentuckyHome | Final · W 34-13 |
| Sat Sep 26 | New MexicoHome | Final · L 18-42 |
| Sat Sep 12 | Hawai'iAway | Final · L 19-29 |
| Sat Sep 5 | Mercyhurst LakersHome | Final · W 51-14 |
| Sat Aug 29 | Florida StateAway | Final · L 17-34 |
Final scores from ESPN public data, last checked Oct 24, 2026, 3:18 PM MT.
Paths to the title game
Chance to reach the title game by number of conference wins, from the same simulated seasons. If the team wins out, its chance is –.
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| Final conference wins | Share of seasonsmodel | Reach title gamemodel |
|---|---|---|
| Locked | ||